The primary reason I've been to Ukraine twice in the past month is for humanitarian reasons. To alleviate the suffering that Russia's unprovoked, horrific attack has caused, I (with the generous support of hundreds of family members, friends, and readers) have purchased and delivered:
- 11 ambulances, with 15 more ordered and paid for (total cost: $2.7 million)
- 4,096 tourniquets
- 24 IFAKs (individual first aid kits)
- Six emergency trauma kits (worth $1,000 each)
- Two generators costing $65,000 (a large one to supply a hospital and a smaller one for a feeding center)
- 12 pallets of hospital gowns and sheets
- Roughly 300 jackets, long underwear, boots, sleeping bags, etc.
- More than 1,000 Hot Hands hand, body, and toe warmers
(If you'd like to learn more, see my slide deck right here, and here's my donation page: www.taps.org/Tilson.)
But another reason for my visits is that how this war plays out will likely have major effects on the markets...
As I outline below in slides from my presentation, I believe Ukraine is much stronger than the Russians (or pretty much anyone else) thinks.
Therefore, I think Ukraine's widely expected counter-offensive in the spring will be successful (I would guess it begins in May, once the roads – which are currently mud pits – harden). I expect that, after a few weeks of bloody, brutal fighting, the Ukrainians will break through, the Russians will retreat in a disorderly fashion, and by, say, late summer, every Russian military unit will have been driven out of Ukraine, including Crimea.
At that point, Russian President Vladimir Putin (or, hopefully, his successor) will be forced to sign a peace deal that ends the war (likely with two bones thrown to the Russians: Crimea will be part of Ukraine, but as a United Nations protectorate... and Ukraine won't become part of NATO but will have security guarantees that will be the effective equivalent).
If my optimistic scenario plays out, I would expect energy and food prices to fall and stocks to soar.
Below are the key slides from my presentation with further details:
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback at [email protected].
